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{"sheet":"Istota ryzyka","index":0,"n_rows":27,"n_cols":2,"rows_kept":27,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[2,1,8,30],[10,1,18,30],[20,1,23,30]]}
[null,"Definicja ryzyka"]
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[null,"Według współczesnych definicji ryzyko, jako pochodna niepewności, związane jest z możliwością realizacji przyszłych zdarzeń na poziomie odmiennym od oczekiwanego, przy czym znane są potencjalne realizacje tych zdarzeń i prawdopodobieństwo ich wystąpienia. Tak więc ryzyko dla przedsiębiorstwa jest zjawiskiem jak najbardziej kwantyfikowalnym, mającym wymierne konsekwencje dla jego wyników finansowych i możliwe jest zarządzanie nim, natomiast niepewność jest niemierzalna (wpływa na wyniki przedsiębiorstwa ale nie można zmierzyć tego wpływu), co uniemożliwia zarządzanie nią. "]
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[null,"Definicja ryzyka może być interpretowana dwojako: możliwość, że coś się nie uda (negatywne ujęcie ryzyka – pogorszenie sytuacji przedsiębiorstwa) lub też przedsięwzięcie, którego wynik nie jest znany (neutralne ujęcie ryzyka – pogorszenie lub polepszenie sytuacji przedsiębiorstwa – określające zagrożenie lub szansę). Pierwsza interpretacja postrzega ryzyko jako zagrożenie, prawdopodobieństwo poniesienia straty, bądź osiągnięcie gorszego rezultatu niż planowany. Ten sposób interpretacji stosuje się najczęściej w ubezpieczeniach. Drugie podejście (neutralne) uznaje ryzyko z jednej strony jako zagrożenie, mogące wpłynąć niekorzystnie na osiąganie przez przedsiębiorstwo wyniki, a z drugiej jako szansę, przy wykorzystaniu której wyniki przedsiębiorstwa mogą ulec poprawie."]
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[null,"Ryzyko jest nieodłącznym elementem każdej działalności gospodarczej przedsiębiorstwa i podejmowanie jakiejkolwiek decyzji w przedsiębiorstwie związane jest ze świadomością jego istnienia i jego akceptacją. Na decyzje te jednak ma wpływ stosunek decydenta do ryzyka. Najczęściej wyróżnia się trzy postawy względem ryzyka:"]
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[null,"•         awersja do ryzyka,"]
[null,"•         neutralność wobec ryzyka,"]
[null,"•         skłonność do ryzyka."]

{"sheet":"Rodzaje ryzyka","index":1,"n_rows":54,"n_cols":2,"rows_kept":54,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[47,1,51,30],[53,1,57,30],[19,1,22,30],[24,1,28,30],[30,1,45,30]]}
[null,"Rodzaje ryzyka"]
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[null,"Ryzyko rynkowe związane jest z funkcjonowaniem rynku, z kształtowaniem się popytu i podaży na określone dobra i wpływa na ich zmienność. Może dotyczyć np.: cen surowców, materiałów i usług obcych, cen produktów i towarów, kursów walutowych, cen instrumentów finansowych, poziomu stóp procentowych itp."]
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[null,"Ryzyko kredytowe w typowym przedsiębiorstwie związane jest z udzielonym kredytem kupieckim, czyli odroczoną płatności z tytułu sprzedanych obcym podmiotom towarów, produktów lub usług. Dotyczy niedotrzymania warunków umowy i wydłużenia terminu płatności (należności przeterminowane) lub też w skrajnym przypadku braku możliwości odzyskania wierzytelności (należności nieściągalne)."]
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[null,"Ryzyko operacyjne dotyczy błędów i niedociągnięć w organizacji działalności przedsiębiorstwa. Najczęściej odnosi się do tzw. czynnika ludzkiego – błędów czy niedociągnięć w organizacji pracy wynikających z braku umiejętności pracowników, zbyt licznych obowiązków czy też świadomego działania na szkodę firmy. Również wady i uszkodzenia procesów technologicznych stanowią realne zagrożenie i mogą powodować przerwy w prawidłowym funkcjonowaniu przedsiębiorstwa, prowadząc do strat finansowych. Do tej grupy ryzyka zaliczane są także wszelkiego rodzaju działania zewnętrzne (klęski żywiołowe, terroryzm, czyny zabronione przez prawo) zakłócające działalność i mogące wpłynąć na wyniki. W obszarze ryzyka operacyjnego umieścić też można wykorzystanie w procesach decyzyjnych modeli błędnie lub nieprecyzyjnie opisujących rzeczywistość. Niewłaściwie zastosowany model wyceny czy też sprawozdania finansowe innych przedsiębiorstw, poddane manipulacji księgowych, nie oddające rzeczywistej sytuacji przedsiębiorstwa a traktowane jako wiarygodne, mogą doprowadzić do podjęcia wielu błędnych decyzji. Do zagrożeń związanych z ryzykiem operacyjnym zaliczane są czasem także błędne decyzje zarządcze na poziomie strategicznego planowania (np. niewystarczająca dywersyfikacja działalności itp.) oraz ryzyko reputacji związane w możliwości utraty zaufania klientów i kontrahentów."]
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[null,"Źródłem ryzyka biznesowego jest działanie przedsiębiorstwa w warunkach konkurencyjności. Istnienie konkurencji powoduje wahania popytu, co przekłada się na zmienność wyników. Innym zagrożeniem jest rozwój nowych technologii, wymuszających usprawnianie istniejących lub wprowadzanie nowych produktów a niedostosowanie się grozi utratą dotychczasowego udziału w rynku."]
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[null,"Ryzyko prawne związane jest ze zmiennością i niejasnością przepisów prawa. Występuje w przypadku uchwalenia aktów prawnych mających wpływ na obecną sytuację lub dalsze funkcjonowanie danego podmiotu gospodarczego lub też w przypadku niekorzystnych efektów prawnych w zawartych przez podmiot umowach. Niektórzy zaliczają całość lub część ryzyka prawnego do ryzyka operacyjnego."]

{"sheet":"Etapy zarządzania ryzykiem","index":2,"n_rows":29,"n_cols":2,"rows_kept":29,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[2,1,10,30],[28,1,30,30]]}
[null,"Etapy zarządzania ryzykiem"]
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[null,"Zarządzanie ryzykiem przedsiębiorstwa najczęściej rozumiane jest jako podejmowanie decyzji oraz realizacja działań prowadzących do optymalizacji ryzyka, czyli w przypadku zagrożeń oznaczają jego ograniczanie, natomiast w przypadku pojawiających się możliwości zwiększenia korzyści oznaczają akceptację danego poziomu ryzyka. Zarządzanie ryzykiem nie polega więc tylko na jego unikaniu, ale także na wykorzystaniu wiedzy i umiejętności do jego oszacowania oraz uzyskania przy nim optymalnego dochodu. Proces zarządzania ryzykiem powinien na stałe być wkomponowany w procesy zarządzania przedsiębiorstwem. Powinien składać się z takich etapów jak: identyfikacja, pomiar, sterowanie ryzykiem a także z monitorowanie i kontrola ryzyka."]
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[null,"Zarządzanie ryzykiem nie jest procesem jednorazowym, w którym kolejne etapy następują po sobie i proces ulega zakończeniu. Jest to proces ciągły składający się z następujących po sobie etapów powiązanych sprzężeniami zwrotnymi. "]

{"sheet":"Pomiar ryzyka (zmienności)","index":3,"n_rows":33,"n_cols":7,"rows_kept":33,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[null,"Pomiar ryzyka w oparciu o obserwacje historyczne:"]
[]
[null,"i","xi","xi-E(x)","[xi-E(x)]^2"]
[null,1,60,{"$f":"C4-$C$10","v":10},{"$f":"D4^2","v":100}]
[null,2,50,{"$f":"C5-$C$10","v":0},{"$f":"D5^2","v":0}]
[null,3,40,{"$f":"C6-$C$10","v":-10},{"$f":"D6^2","v":100}]
[null,4,55,{"$f":"C7-$C$10","v":5},{"$f":"D7^2","v":25}]
[null,5,45,{"$f":"C8-$C$10","v":-5},{"$f":"D8^2","v":25}]
[null,null,{"$f":"SUM(C4:C8)","v":250},null,{"$f":"SUM(E4:E8)","v":250}]
[null,null,{"$f":"C9/5","v":50},null,{"$f":"E9/4","v":62.5}]
[null,null,null,null,{"$f":"E10^0.5","v":7.9056941504209481}]
[]
[null,null,null,null,{"$f":"E11/C10","v":0.15811388300841897}]
[]
[]
[null,"Pomiar ryzyka w oparciu o scenariusze:"]
[null,"pi","xi","pi * xi","xi-E(x)","[xi-E(x)]^2","pi*[xi-E(x)]^2"]
[null,0.1,0,{"$f":"B18*C18","v":0},{"$f":"C18-$D$23","v":-51},{"$f":"E18^2","v":2601},{"$f":"F18*B18","v":260.10000000000002}]
[null,0.25,30,{"$f":"B19*C19","v":7.5},{"$f":"C19-$D$23","v":-21},{"$f":"E19^2","v":441},{"$f":"F19*B19","v":110.25}]
[null,0.3,45,{"$f":"B20*C20","v":13.5},{"$f":"C20-$D$23","v":-6},{"$f":"E20^2","v":36},{"$f":"F20*B20","v":10.799999999999999}]
[null,0.2,75,{"$f":"B21*C21","v":15},{"$f":"C21-$D$23","v":24},{"$f":"E21^2","v":576},{"$f":"F21*B21","v":115.2}]
[null,0.15,100,{"$f":"B22*C22","v":15},{"$f":"C22-$D$23","v":49},{"$f":"E22^2","v":2401},{"$f":"F22*B22","v":360.15}]
[null,{"$f":"SUM(B18:B22)","v":0.99999999999999989},null,{"$f":"SUM(D18:D22)","v":51},null,null,{"$f":"SUM(G18:G22)","v":856.5}]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"G23^0.5","v":29.266021253323792}]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"G24/D23","v":0.57384355398674103}]
[]
[]
[]
[null,"Pomiar większej zmienności:"]
[null,null,"E(x)","Sx","CVx"]
[null,"A",1000,100,{"$f":"D32/C32","v":0.1}]
[null,"B",100000,5000,{"$f":"D33/C33","v":0.05}]

{"sheet":"Miary zmienności","index":4,"n_rows":43,"n_cols":37,"rows_kept":43,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
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[7,null,96,null,null,null,null,null,133,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,7,107,113.31622805494744,100.68377194505256,112.3,101.7,96,102,107,112.25,117]
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[9,null,112,null,null,null,null,null,126,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,9,107,113.31622805494744,100.68377194505256,112.3,101.7,96,102,107,112.25,117]
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[11,null,110,null,null,null,null,null,73,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,11,107,113.31622805494744,100.68377194505256,112.3,101.7,96,102,107,112.25,117]
[12,null,99,null,null,null,null,null,145,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,12,107,113.31622805494744,100.68377194505256,112.3,101.7,96,102,107,112.25,117]
[13,null,112,null,null,null,null,null,117,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,13,107,113.31622805494744,100.68377194505256,112.3,101.7,96,102,107,112.25,117]
[14,null,102,null,null,null,null,null,99,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,14,107,113.31622805494744,100.68377194505256,112.3,101.7,96,102,107,112.25,117]
[15,null,113,null,null,null,null,null,118,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,15,107,113.31622805494744,100.68377194505256,112.3,101.7,96,102,107,112.25,117]
[16,null,96,null,null,null,null,null,67,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,16,107,113.31622805494744,100.68377194505256,112.3,101.7,96,102,107,112.25,117]
[17,null,109,null,null,null,null,null,141,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,17,107,113.31622805494744,100.68377194505256,112.3,101.7,96,102,107,112.25,117]
[18,null,105,null,null,null,null,null,57,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,18,107,113.31622805494744,100.68377194505256,112.3,101.7,96,102,107,112.25,117]
[19,null,108,null,null,null,null,null,94,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,19,107,113.31622805494744,100.68377194505256,112.3,101.7,96,102,107,112.25,117]
[20,null,105,null,null,null,null,null,186,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,20,107,113.31622805494744,100.68377194505256,112.3,101.7,96,102,107,112.25,117]
[]
["średnia",null,{"$f":"AVERAGE(C2:C21)","v":107},null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"AVERAGE(I2:I21)","v":107},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"średnia","+odch.standardowe","-odch.standardowe","+odchylenie średnie","-odchylenie średnie","min","Q1","mediana","Q3","max"]
["odch.standardowe",null,{"$f":"STDEV(C2:C21)","v":6.3162280549474508},null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"STDEV(I2:I21)","v":30.751978969268237},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,1,{"$f":"$I$23","v":107},{"$f":"$AB24+$I$24","v":137.75197896926824},{"$f":"$AB24-$I$24","v":76.248021030731763},{"$f":"$AB24+$I$25","v":129.9},{"$f":"$AB24-$I$25","v":84.1},{"$f":"$I$29","v":57},{"$f":"$I$30","v":91.75},{"$f":"$I$31","v":105},{"$f":"$I$32","v":120},{"$f":"$I$33","v":186}]
["odchylenie średnie",null,{"$f":"AVEDEV(C2:C21)","v":5.3},null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"AVEDEV(I2:I21)","v":22.9},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,2,{"$f":"$I$23","v":107},{"$f":"$AB25+$I$24","v":137.75197896926824},{"$f":"$AB25-$I$24","v":76.248021030731763},{"$f":"$AB25+$I$25","v":129.9},{"$f":"$AB25-$I$25","v":84.1},{"$f":"$I$29","v":57},{"$f":"$I$30","v":91.75},{"$f":"$I$31","v":105},{"$f":"$I$32","v":120},{"$f":"$I$33","v":186}]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,3,107,137.75197896926824,76.248021030731763,129.9,84.1,57,91.75,105,120,186]
["współcz. zmienności",null,{"$f":"C24/C23","v":5.9030168737826641E-2},null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"I24/I23","v":0.28740167260998351},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,4,107,137.75197896926824,76.248021030731763,129.9,84.1,57,91.75,105,120,186]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,5,107,137.75197896926824,76.248021030731763,129.9,84.1,57,91.75,105,120,186]
["min",null,{"$f":"QUARTILE(C$2:C$21,0)","v":96},null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"QUARTILE(I$2:I$21,0)","v":57},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,6,107,137.75197896926824,76.248021030731763,129.9,84.1,57,91.75,105,120,186]
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